For the Record....Goals for 2010 and 2011.

Anal retentive.  Two words that could be and have been used to describe me.  =)

I've been working on a spreadsheet to help me figure out a realistic goal and to help me evaluate everything. To be clear the total profit is per month only.  As an example, in Nov. my goal is to win $251.55.  By the end of Nov. I'd like to see myself with almost $400 in the bankroll.

The spreadsheet is reasonably useful so if anyone ever wants a copy let me know and I'll send you the template.  It actually goes out through 2012.
 

	Budget
	Rake	Rakeback	Net Game Won	Total Profit
September	2.10	0.57	20.65	21.22
October	9.30	2.51	91.45	93.96
November	15.00	4.05	247.50	251.55
December	31.00	8.37	511.50	519.87
Total 2010:	57.40	15.50	871.10	886.60
	Budget
	Rake	Rakeback	Net Game Won	Total Profit
January	31.00	8.37	511.50	519.87
February	28.00	7.56	462.00	469.56
March	62.00	16.74	1,023.00	1,039.74
April	60.00	16.20	990.00	1,006.20
May	60.00	16.20	990.00	1,006.20
June	90.00	24.30	1,485.00	1,509.30

How have you predicted?
You are going to be very impressed by the complexity! =)   I've assumed that once I hit $10 ante it would take me three months to prove myself at each level until my bankroll and win rate is high enough to advance.

I've found it hard to work in number of games per night so for Rake and Rakeback i'm only assuming two games per night.  Net Game won is what I expect to win each night taking away rake costs.  To keep the pressure a little easier on myself i'm assuming it takes 5 games to win my goal each night.  I know it doesn't make the most sense, but if I win two games in a row on a day I wanted to be able to stop if I was busy.

As an example for a $10 +0.50 i'm expecting to win $16.50 per night.  I do not have any breaks planned in my budget so this also allows me to take a day off now and again without stressing of falling behind. 

 How is it going so far?

At the end of October I'm $4.00 over the Sep and Oct expectation as a year to date figure (YTD).  Rake budgeting is clearly not the best as I"m ahead of expectations - almost triple.  I get 27% returned via Rakeback. 

I was expecting to play $5.00 throughout all of Nov.  By moving up and having such a good streak going at the $10 +0.50 I've reached my goal with a little over a week to go.  Huzzah!  Let's hope we dont #$#$ it up!

An Incredible Run!

I'm not sure how other poker players feel, but moving up stakes always seems hard for me.  Putting in that larger ante seems a little stressful.  Over the weekend I tried moving up from the $5 buy in to the $10....SHAZAM!!

After six games I was up a little, but suddenly I had an incredible run by winning 12 games in a row...losing one, and then four more wins.  This was over several days, but its great to be on such a streak and gaining that confidence at a new level.

In the next couple of blog updates I'll talk about bankroll and the importance.  "That's boring Fish!"  Yes, but once you hear my sad story not only will you lose respect for me (always a goal for any blog), but you'll also get to laugh at my grade "A" meathead moment.

Goals of the Fish

A little scary that I"m writing this with the assumption that nobody will ever see this.  If I ever become famous.....  So why am I writing this?

Therapy would be the short answer I think.  A place in the world where I can collect my thoughts and analyze my poker game.  A way to put pressure -- a written statement -- of my goals for the entire world to see. (I wonder if someone will read this one day?)

Only about poker?  I have no idea and reserve the right to change topics.  Most likely this will occur at the next presidential election or if I go into a nerd rage over some online game.  The general point though is to discuss poker with particular emphasis on my abilities.

As for me, I"m 35, wife, two kids, and poker is a hobby.  A hobby I hope to make much more lucrative then the average player.  Anyone else able to relate with the Satruday afternoons lost on the Atari 2600?

Poker
Heads-Up poker is the game for me.  I like the action, the one-on-one competition and the ability it takes to make key decisions.  2 Max SnG are where I spend my time almost exclusively.  The cap on what you can lose seems to work better for me also.  This type of game allows me to be aggressive with my chips, but also makes it easier to not take huge hits on variance -- or let's be honest -- bad plays.

I started playing on 6 or 9 man SnGs, but found that if I do well I would consistently come into 2nd place.  That makes sense as most people have experience playing in ring games or SnGs where you are winning pots against a larger field.  If you were/are anything like I am then you suddenly found it hard to read people at the critical finale.

That is why I moved into heads up play. 

Goals
Should I say one million -- six figures -- $10k?  For now let's take a baby step and assume $10k is the goal. I've started this blog a little late as I"ve been playing for a couple of months.   THIS time I started on 9/24/10.  I also think an ROI of 15% is probably about right for me. 

Current Run:
I put $50 into Full Tilt Poker and started playing the $2.50 heads up games.  Due to my history I now find bankroll management VERY (VERY VERY) important.  For this reason I am going slow as we try to become the bigger fish in the felt pond.

I do receive some rakeback, and I'll take advantage of some deposit deals sometimes, but for the purpose of this goal I am looking at the graph as the only indicator of success. 

I do have a few games missing from this graph which I'll add in -- only about 10 games or so though. 

Poker Thoughts:
I have been playing $2.50 and $5.00 games up until now almost exlusively. My ROI at $2.50 was awful -- terrible even. I don't know if it was because I was coming back rusty or if it was harder to read my opponent.  When I moved up to $5.00 I became much more successful and seemed to find my rythm. 

$2.50

• 125 games
• 70 W
• ROI of 4.13%

$5.00

• 216 games
• 133 W
• ROI of 17.28%